Judgement and supply chain dynamics

Forecasting demand at the individual stock-keeping-unit (SKU) level often necessitates the use of statistical methods, such as exponential smoothing. In some organizations, however, statistical forecasts will be subject to judgemental adjustments by managers. Although a number of empirical and ‘laboratory’ studies have been performed in this area, no formal OR modelling has been conducted to offer insights into the impact such adjustments may have on supply chain performance and the potential development of mitigation mechanisms. This is because of the associated dynamic complexity and the situation-specific nature of the problem at hand. In conjunction with appropriate stock control rules, demand forecasts help decide how much to order. It is a common practice that replenishment orders may also be subject to judgemental intervention, adding further to the dynamic system complexity and interdependence. The system dynamics (SD) modelling method can help advance knowledge in this area, where mathematical modelling cannot accommodate the associated complexity. This study, which constitutes part of a UK government funded (EPSRC) project, uses SD models to evaluate the effects of forecasting and ordering adjustments for a wide set of scenarios involving: three different inventory policies; seven different (combinations of) points of intervention; and four different (combinations of) types of judgmental intervention (optimistic and pessimistic). The results enable insights to be gained into the performance of the entire supply chain. An agenda for further research concludes the paper

A method for purification, identification and validation of DNMT1 mRNA binding proteins

DNA methyltransferase 1 (DNMT1) is the enzyme responsible for the maintenance of DNA methylation patterns during cell division. DNMT1 expression is tightly regulated within the cell cycle. Our previous study showed that the binding of a protein with an apparent size of ~40 kDa on DNMT1 3’-UTR triggered the destabilization of DNMT1 mRNA transcript during Go/G1 phase. Using RNA affinity capture with the 3’-UTR of DNMT1 mRNA and matrix-assisted laser desorption-time of flight tandem mass spectrometry (MALDI-TOF-MS-MS) analysis, we isolated and identified AUF 1 (AU-rich element ARE:poly-(U)-binding/degradation factor) as the binding protein. We then validated the role of this protein in the destabilization of DNMT1 mRNA. In this report, we detail the different approaches used for the isolation, the identification of a RNA binding protein and the validation of its role

Evaluation of bottom-up and top-down strategies for aggregated forecasts: state space models and arima applications

Abstract. In this research, we consider monthly series from the M4 competition to study the relative performance of top-down and bottom-up strategies by means of implementing forecast automation of state space and ARIMA models. For the bottomup strategy, the forecast for each series is developed individually and then these are combined to produce a cumulative forecast of the aggregated series. For the top-down strategy, the series or components values are first combined and then a single forecast is determined for the aggregated series. Based on our implementation, state space models showed a higher forecast performance when a top-down strategy is applied. ARIMA models had a higher forecast performance for the bottom-up strategy. For state space models the top-down strategy reduced the overall error significantly. ARIMA models showed to be more accurate when forecasts are first determined individually. As part of the development we also proposed an approach to improve the forecasting procedure of aggregation strategies

Vertebral rotation measurement: a summary and comparison of common radiographic and CT methods

Current research has provided a more comprehensive understanding of Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis (AIS) as a three-dimensional spinal deformity, encompassing both lateral and rotational components. Apart from quantifying curve severity using the Cobb angle, vertebral rotation has become increasingly prominent in the study of scoliosis. It demonstrates significance in both preoperative and postoperative assessment, providing better appreciation of the impact of bracing or surgical interventions. In the past, the need for computer resources, digitizers and custom software limited studies of rotation to research performed after a patient left the scoliosis clinic. With advanced technology, however, rotation measurements are now more feasible. While numerous vertebral rotation measurement methods have been developed and tested, thorough comparisons of these are still relatively unexplored. This review discusses the advantages and disadvantages of six common measurement techniques based on technology most pertinent in clinical settings: radiography (Cobb, Nash-Moe, Perdriolle and Stokes' method) and computer tomography (CT) imaging (Aaro-Dahlborn and Ho's method). Better insight into the clinical suitability of rotation measurement methods currently available is presented, along with a discussion of critical concerns that should be addressed in future studies and development of new methods

PECAM-Independent Thioglycollate Peritonitis Is Associated With a Locus on Murine Chromosome 2

Background: Previous studies have demonstrated that knockout or inhibition of Platelet/Endothelial Cell Adhesion Molecule (PECAM, CD31) in a number of murine strains results in impaired inflammatory responses, but that no such phenotype is seen in the C57BL/6 (B6) murine background. Methodology/Principal Findings: We have undertaken a quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping effort between FVB/n (FVB) and B6 mice deficient for PECAM to identify the gene or genes responsible for this unique feature of B6 mice. We have identified a locus on murine chromosome 2 at approximately 35.8 Mb that is strongly associated (LOD score = 9.0) with inflammatory responses in the absence of PECAM. Conclusions/Significance: These data potentiate further study of the diapedesis machinery, as well as potential identification of new components of this machinery. As such, this study is an important step to better understanding the processes of inflammation

Indications for conservative management of scoliosis (guidelines)

This guideline has been discussed by the SOSORT guideline committee prior to the SOSORT consensus meeting in Milan, January 2005 and published in its first version on the SOSORT homepage: . After the meeting it again has been discussed by the members of the SOSORT guideline committee to establish the final 2005 version submitted to Scoliosis, the official Journal of the society, in December 2005

A Simple Stochastic Model with Environmental Transmission Explains Multi-Year Periodicity in Outbreaks of Avian Flu

Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2–8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks environmental transmission, is unable to reproduce the multi-periodic patterns of avian influenza epidemics. In this paper, we argue that a fully stochastic theory based on environmental transmission provides a simple, plausible explanation for the phenomenon of multi-year periodic outbreaks of avian flu. Our theory predicts complex fluctuations with a dominant period of 2 to 8 years which essentially depends on the intensity of environmental transmission. A wavelet analysis of the observed data supports this prediction. Furthermore, using master equations and van Kampen system-size expansion techniques, we provide an analytical expression for the spectrum of stochastic fluctuations, revealing how the outbreak period varies with the environmental transmission